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China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®
Ebook Download China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®
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Review
"If the notion of a middle way sounds intuitively appealing, Arthur Kroeber's book brings rigour to the debate to show why it is also the most likely outcome. A longtime China analyst now managing an independent research firm, he launches an assault, albeit courteously worded, on conventional wisdom from the two opposing camps. What emerges is a nuanced take on an economy facing serious challenges, ones that do not spell its collapse but could prove intractable all the same."--The Economist"Thankfully Arthur Kroeber has [condensed] many years of studying and writing about the Chinese economy into a single-volume portrait accessible to the generalist. Aside from the clear descriptive prose and judicious organisation this book achieves two things. On the one hand it lays out a detailed framework of how China works that will be recognisable to experts, and accessible to newcomers, breaking the whole into a series of digestible parts. On the other hand it offers a layer of measured assessment aimed at addressing the full range of pressing issues affecting China."--Forbes "Few have watched the development of the Chinese economy as closely as Arthur Kroeber. [China's Economy] is a wide-ranging and authoritative primer on the history and development of China's unique blend of decentralized economic authoritarianism."--Quartz
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About the Author
Arthur R. Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research consultancy he established in Beijing in 2002 after 15 years as a freelance financial journalist in Asia, and editor of its flagship publication China Economic Quarterly. He is also head of research at the firm's parent company Gavekal, where he advises financial, corporate and government clients on economic and political developments in China. Kroeber is a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy, adjunct professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and a member of the National Committee on US-China relations. He lives in Beijing and New York.
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Product details
Series: What Everyone Needs To Know®
Paperback: 336 pages
Publisher: Oxford University Press; 1 edition (April 1, 2016)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0190239034
ISBN-13: 978-0190239039
Product Dimensions:
8.2 x 1 x 5.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.7 out of 5 stars
62 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#21,451 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
The Chinese economy is consistently a topic that dominates political and economic discussions. The nature of the Chinese economy is often misunderstood and aspects of it can be grossly overstated while others underrepresented. China's Economy discusses many aspects of the largest global economy in purchasing power, exploring the drivers of growth and the political economy that has defined the last 30 years for the country. One gets a sense of the history as well as the challenges it faces for the future. Avoiding sensationalist content the book gives very good balanced perspectives on the critical issues that are often quoted in the news including its debt, its corruption levels, its trade policy and its actual economic weight in the global economy.The book is split into 12 chapters covering a host of topics. The author starts with discussing the huge rural to urban transition that started to occur with the reforms during Deng Xiaoping's leadership. One gets a sense of the low base that growth started from as well as the scale of the transition that needed to occur. China remains a relatively rural population for where it is on the income per capita spectrum. The author discusses how china focused on growing its capital base along the coast to drive export led growth, similar to other Asian tiger economies and discusses the rise of the export proportion of the economy which peaked at 30% of GDP right before the financial crisis. That proportion has since diminished as infrastructure investment has rebalanced demand from export to domestic (creating a host of other problems, namely much higher credit intensity). The author discusses the size of the SOE sector and how it has gone through cycles in which the entire economy was SOE dependent to the early part of last decade when large layoffs in the SOE space occurred to try to improve efficiency. The decline in profitability of the SOE sector is also discussed in the aftermath of the financial crisis as credit was a directed towards that sector to drive GDP growth with a decline in the export sector. The author discusses the fiscal side in China and how despite it having a politically dominant central government, its economic system leads to much more provincial spending. The tension between central government and provincial economic goals and priorities is discussed and the author gives insight into why reform can be so difficult at times when goals are conflicting. The financial system is discussed and statistics are given on how credit has been allocated. The author discusses the interest rate system and the migration of loans from state to household that is occurring. The author also discusses how the investment led growth led to a degradation of the environment and the subsidies on energy for investment led to unbalanced use of commodities and negative externalities in the form of pollution and overinvestment. The author discusses how there is a central government desire to reorient the economy but a provincial level civil unrest risk that comes with layoffs in heavy industries. Demographics are covered and the reader gets a history of the one-child policy and the views on human capital that the party took over the years. This has most recently been relaxed but the author discusses the low fertility rates despite this as the cost of living has gone up. The consumer economy is also discussed and the author gives context to the heavy investment that has taken place. The author discusses the capital stock/GDP ratio of China and the US and how high investment share of GDP is to be expected. The author does also reiterate that the high investment share is unsustainable and the recent boom has created imbalances but the starting point was such that claims of under-consumption are out of context. The author discusses inequality and corruption and the political economy of the growth. He discusses the reasons for the recent crackdown on corruption executed under Xi Xinping. In particular the author highlights how the growth model of heavy investment to fuel growth led to easy opportunity to skim from the political elite- the value of such a strategy was positive despite its impact on the social contract of the people and the party in the early stages but at this point it is fuelling inefficiency. China's Gini coefficient has risen massively as wealth was transferred from rural to urban as housing was privatized and the political class capitalized on public spending. As a result of the declining productivity of capital investment the willingness to tolerate corruption has become much lower as it is counterproductive now. This leads the author to discuss the growth model and its need for change.China's economy is of central importance to global growth and has been the largest contributor for some time. Its economy is often misunderstood and criticisms of policy are often a way for those criticizing to avoid self reflection. The author discusses some of the most important topics concerning the Chinese economy including its politics, its demographics, its productivity, its financial system and its growth model. The author also discusses China's role in global politics as well as its soft power. There is much uncertainty that cannot be cleared up regarding China and its path of development but this book gives much insight for those wanting to try to weigh the odds of various outcomes.
In China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, Arthur Kroeber provides both the general reader and the China specialist with an exceptionally clear and balanced exposition of the unfolding of the Chinese economic miracle over the past four decades and of the workings of China’s Leninist market economy. Kroeber organizes the book in logically ordered chapters that comprehensively cover the key economic sectors, the organizing principles and structure of the economy, the economic challenges confronting China, likely future directions of the economy, and the impact that the Chinese economy will have on the rest of the world.Having lived in Asia since 1987 and led a Beijing-based research team working on the Chinese economy for over a decade, Kroeber is eminently qualified to take on the daunting subject of the Chinese economy in its entirety. China’s Economy avoids technical jargon, is easy for the generalist to read, yet provides the facts and figures necessary to support the arguments of the book.At a time when the media are publishing a seemingly endless stream of negative reports on China’s economy, gloomily forecasting impending crises, Kroeber provides a much needed, fact-based reality check. China’s economic problems are acknowledged in full, but Kroeber puts them in context and provides grounds for optimism that these problems will not derail the economy and that they are manageable. He gives credit to the successes of the managers of China’s economy, extolling their pragmatism and pointing out their wisdom in often rejecting the “market fundamentalism†proffered by “experts†dispensing neo-classical economic advice based on the not very relevant experience of the rich countries in which they are based.Kroeber points out that China’s economic success over the past decades was based on “resource mobilization†and occurred at a time when various exceptional conditions converged favorable to China’s hyper-growth. To make economic growth sustainable, however, will require less “resource mobilization†and more efficient use of resources—a transition that will challenge China’s economic leadership and which will be complicated by the restraints imposed by an authoritarian government.Kroeber’s China’s Economy is a nuanced, empathetic yet thoroughly objective, comprehensive view of today’s Chinese economy. It is a much needed corrective to the ideological or sensationalist negative accounts that dominate reporting on China. This book is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand the circumstances and means by which China has achieved its economic miracle, and where the economy is headed in future years.
For anyone interested in China and the REAL story since the death of Mao in 1976, this will knock your socks off. The best book on world economics I've read since The World is Flat. This will show you why China has succeeded and Russia hasn't. Why China is perhaps less xenophobic in some ways than the USA. It shows reasons why we shouldn't feel threatened. Shows how the four rulers since Mao have dramatically changed his failed policies; how China's government has promise while Russia's doesn't. The best part of the book is the exhaustive documentation and research, and the honesty about what information is available and what is not. This book is dense, but a revelation in every chapter. This book will also give you hope that a country of 320 million can be run better if a country of 1.4 billion can be run at all! Not a quick read but worth every sentence. Just visited China for two weeks, and the book was even better than the visit!
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